Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Looks as if we are going to continue to fall

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Looks as if we are going to continue to fall

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Looks as if we are going to continue to fall

The Australian dollar initially try to rally during the training session on Thursday but then felt to break down below the bottom of the hammer that had formed during the previous day. That being said, it looks as if we are going to continue the overall pattern of trading.

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the training session on Thursday, but then broke down significantly to slice through the bottom of the hammer from the previous session. That’s a very negative sign, because it turns this candlestick into a bit of a “hanging man”, although it’s not at the absolute top. It should also be noted that the previous candles from earlier in the week were a couple of shooting stars. That of course is a very negative sign as well, so ultimately it looks as if we are ready to continue the overall consolidation that has been forming.

To the downside, this market could go as low as the 0.67 level before reaching the bottom of the rectangle that is trying to be foreign. Granted, the 50-day EMA is between here and there and could offer support, but quite frankly this is a market that is going to be at the mercy of the US/China trade situation which of course is continuing to be up in the air and therefore not decisive.

At this point, the market struggles for clarity when it comes to the US/China trade situation which is essentially in limbo. As long as that’s going to be the case, Australia will suffer as it is such a main exporter to China. Ultimately, we will have to come to some type of resolution, but it looks as if we are months away from that happening, as a Chinese look ready to wait until the presidential election to resolve the issue.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.1196. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 55 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.004 at 0.682. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.685 0.686 0.681 0.682 50,277
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 8 7 8
Volume: 53,942 64,570 82,727

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

The following two tabs change content below.
HEFFX has become one of Asia’s leading financial services companies with interests in Publishing, Private Equity, Capital Markets, Mining, Retail, Transport and Agriculture that span every continent of the world. Our clearing partners have unprecedented experience in Equities, Options, Forex and Commodities brokering, banking, physical metals dealing, floor brokering and trading.

You must be logged in to post comments :  
CONNECT WITH