Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) likely to continue to trade rangebound
Friday’s close fell inside a 50% level at .7079 and a resistance zone at .7150 to .7153. Trader reaction to these levels will set the tone for the week. Trading inside .7079 to .7153 will indicate a neutral market. The AUD/USD is likely to continue to trade rangebound until the RBA changes policy and indicates its next move will likely be a rate cut. At least that’s what the bearish traders are betting on.
Friday’s close fell inside a 50% level at .7079 and a resistance zone at .7150 to .7153. Trader reaction to these levels will set the tone for the week. Trading inside .7079 to .7153 will indicate a neutral market.
In order to generate a strong upside bias, buyers are going to have to overcome .7153, .7168, .7184 and .7207 in succession.
Selling pressure is likely to increase if .7079 fails as support. However, sellers will still have to take out .7052, .7041 and .7030 in order to trigger an acceleration to the downside.
The AUD/USD is likely to continue to trade rangebound until the RBA changes policy and indicates its next move will likely be a rate cut. At least that’s what the bearish traders are betting on.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.3579. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 74 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.711. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 67% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.713 0.709 0.711 95,378
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 8 9 10
Volume: 100,381 102,572 108,168
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.