Home FX AUD Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) light trading expected

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) light trading expected

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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) light trading expected

AUD/USD has posted slight losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6916, down 0.16% on the day. U.S markets are closed in the U.S. for the Memorial Day holiday, and there are no U.S. or Australian events on the calendar. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases CB Consumer Confidence. Investors are looking ahead to events later in the week, as Australia posts Private Capital Expenditure on Wednesday and the U.S. releases first-quarter GDP on Thursday.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated last week, but the Aussie managed to post gains. A trade deal between the two super-economies has not materialized, despite assurances from U.S. officials that substantial progress has been made. China has reacted angrily to U.S. sanctions on Huawei and has suspended trade talks with the U.S. Although negotiations will likely resume at some point, investors remains jittery, and this could weigh on the Australian dollar.

U.S. indicators ended the week on a disappointing note, as April durable goods orders were softer than expected. Durable goods orders slumped 2.1%, just below the estimate of -2.0%. This marked the sharpest decline since January 2018. The core reading slowed to 0.0%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The U.S. economy has been performing well, and the economy will receive a report card on Thursday, with the release of Preliminary GDP for the first quarter, which is expected to post a strong gain of 3.1%. The initial GDP reading showed a gain of 3.2%, crushing the estimate of 2.2%. Will the revised release also beat expectations? If so, traders can expect the U.S. dollar to post broad gains.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.70.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.5617. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.692. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.692 0.692 0.691 0.692 3,372

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 6 8 10
Volume: 78,638 91,372 105,177

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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