Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) launches higher

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) launches higher

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) launches higher

The Australian dollar launched higher during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 50 day EMA in a relatively strong sign for the Aussie. However, at the end of the day we still have significant headwinds above and from a fundamental standpoint.

The Australian dollar has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 50 day EMA. By doing so, this would have brought more momentum into the marketplace, but we also have the recent highs which is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near the 0.69 level causing resistance.

Ultimately, the Aussie is held hostage by the US/China trade talks, so it should not be thought of as overly surprising if we roll over from here. Beyond that, we are still very much in a long-term downtrend, so don’t be surprised at all if sellers step in rather soon.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.1153. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 51 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 184.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.683. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.682 0.683 0.682 0.683 3,037
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 8 8 8
Volume: 51,710 66,505 83,571

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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