Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) lacks any catalyst to pursue a sustained move higher
The Australian Dollar edged higher on Monday as traders took up positions ahead of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision but analyst commentary suggests the announcement is unlikely to provide the Antipodean unit with impetus for further gains.
AUD recovered most of its loss made earlier last week as it rebounded strongly and closed on a firm note last Friday (NY close of 0.7397, +0.46%).
The price action was not surprising as we indicated on Friday, we do not detect a significant improvement in downward pressure.
From here, we continue to hold same view that AUD is caught in a broad range and is expected to trade sideways between 0.7310 and 0.7485.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.73.
The projected closing price is: 0.74.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.7699. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 63 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.739. Volume was 37% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.740 0.740 0.737 0.739 63,660
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.74 0.77
Volatility: 10 11 9
Volume: 98,968 102,574 93,494
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.
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