Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) key events are business and consumer confidence reports and employment change

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) key events are business and consumer confidence reports and employment change

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) key events are business and consumer confidence reports and employment change

In Australia, the focus was on the RBA rate decision. The bank maintained rates at an even 1.0% and RBA Governor Philip Lowe had a dovish message for the markets. Lowe noted that trade tensions remained a pressing concern and said that the weak housing market and a lack of wage growth had weighed on the economy.

The trade war between the U.S. and China continues to escalate, which could well impact on risk currencies like the Aussie. China officially canceled all purchases of all U.S. agricultural products, a response to the U.S. decision to slap a 10% tariff on some $300 billion in Chinese products. As well, China devalued its currency to a 10-year low against the dollar, prompting the U.S. to label China as a “currency manipulator”.

In the U.S., the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slowed to 53.7 in July, its lowest level in almost three years. This is indicative of weaker expansion in the services sector. The week wrapped up with inflation data, which remains at low levels. The producer price index was unchanged at 0.2%, matching the forecast. The core release declined by 0.2%, its first decline of the year.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.69.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.0974. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.678. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 115% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.679 0.679 0.678 0.678 848
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.71
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 65,114 70,236 95,463

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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