Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Job vacancies fall

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Job vacancies fall

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Job vacancies fall

Australia’s Westpac leading index came in flat in February, falling from an upwardly-revised +0.1% reading in January, despite firmer commodity prices. In addition, skilled vacancies in February fell 0.9% m/m, escalating January’s revised 0.5% decline. The Australian jobs markets has been one of the more robust parts of the domestic economy, registering monthly average jobs growth of more than 30,000 over the past six months. Any signs of a peak in jobs activity could be detrimental to the Aussie. February’s employment report is due tomorrow morning.

AUD/USD slid to a six-day low during the morning session, touching 0.7056. The FX pair seems to be shying away from the 55-day moving average at 0.7131, which has capped prices so far this month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.4170. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.709. Volume was 54% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.709 0.709 0.705 0.709 49,859

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 5 10 11
Volume: 89,760 102,594 107,961

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.

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