Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Investors focus on the RBA minutes and employment reports
The Australian dollar continued to post gains last week, despite disappointing confidence numbers. NAB business confidence slowed to 1 point, in August marking a 4-month low.
There was no relief from Westpac consumer sentiment, which fell by 1.7% in July, its third decline in the past four months.Over in the U.S., consumer inflation reports were a mixed bag.
CPI slipped to 0.3%, down from 0.1%, but this matched the estimate. Core CPI remained steady at 0.3%, edging above the forecast of 0.2%. The week wrapped up with retail sales, which slowed considerably in August. Retail sales fell to 0.4%, down from 0.7% a month earlier.
Core retail sales slowed to zero, compared to 1.0% in the previous release. It was the first time that core retail sales failed to record a gain since March.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.69.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.8189. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.687. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.687 0.688 0.686 0.687 2,054
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.70
Volatility: 5 8 9
Volume: 63,619 66,161 89,157
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.