Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) indicators pointed lower
AUD/USD has posted small losses on Wednesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6875, down 0.12% on the day. On the release front, Australian indicators pointed lower. The MI Leading Index dropped 0.1%, while the Construction Index declined 1.9%, much weaker than the estimate of a 0.1% gain. This was a third straight decline, indicative of persistent weakness in the construction sector. Later in the day, Australia releases manufacturing and services PMIs. In the U.S. today’s highlight is the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting earlier this month. On Thursday, the U.S. releases unemployment claims.
Traders have circled June 4 on their calendars, the date of the RBA’s next policy meeting. The bank surprised the markets at the May meeting, when it maintained the key interest rate at 1.50%. The markets had priced in a rate cut of 25 basis points, given that economic growth has been dampened by the global trade war, in particular the slowdown which has gripped China. The RBA minutes were dovish, with a reference to the “uncertainties” regarding the bank’s inflation target of 2.0%. As well, policymakers dropped a reference to “not a strong case” for a rate move in the near future, which appears to be a bias in favor of easing. RBA Governor Lowe spoke on Tuesday and the message was even clearer. Lowe stated that a “decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.” The markets responded by pricing in a rate cut in June at 91%, so the Aussie could face further headwinds as investors look for more attractive alternatives.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting. Will the minutes point to any bias regarding the next rate move? At the May meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate for a fourth straight month. The rate statement noted that inflation pressures remain muted and that the FOMC would remain patient regarding future rate movements. Jerome Powell reinforced this stance after the meeting, saying that “we don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction”. The Fed is already on record as saying it does not expect to raise rates before 2020, and with inflation levels persistently below the Fed’s target of 2.0%, the Fed can afford to continue its wait-and-see stance.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.70.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.69.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.2067. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.688. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 25% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.688 0.688 0.688 0.688 754
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.71 0.71
Volatility: 7 8 10
Volume: 82,900 91,901 105,515
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.
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