Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) housing data disappointed Aussie buyers
RBA’s pessimism and soft housing market data couldn’t disappoint Aussie buyers as risk sentiment remains strong.
0.7130/35 comprising 50-day SMA acts as immediate resistance contrast to 0.7050 support.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is taking the bids around 0.7100 versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The pair recently dropped to the day’s low near 0.7090 after RBA minutes and housing data disappointed Aussie buyers. Though, overall strong risk sentiment and expectations of a dovish FOMC result on Wednesday continue to favor the pair’s upside momentum.
Minutes of the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on March 05 conveyed significant uncertainties on the economic outlook while giving equal importance to both the directions of rate change depending upon the incoming data. Additionally, fourth quarter (Q4) house price index details dropped more than -2.0% forecast and -1.5% earlier on QoQ to -2.4% while yearly data marked -5.1% contraction versus -0.4% market consensus and -1.9% prior.
Except for initial reaction, traders cared less for the Australian data/events amid growing risk-on sentiment amid optimism surrounding Brexit. Adding to pair’s strength was expectations that recent drawdown in the US data might push the Federal Reserve to trim their 2019 rate-hike predictions from 2 lifts to only one.
While developments concerning Brexit and speculations for Wednesday’s FOMC event may continue playing background music for the AUD/USD traders, January month Factory Orders from the US could act as an immediate catalyst. The factory orders are expected to grow by +0.3% against +0.1% previous expansion.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.2978. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 61 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.710. Volume was 54% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.710 0.711 0.709 0.710 49,427
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 7 10 11
Volume: 90,500 103,108 107,959
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.
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