Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) highly sensitive to risk sentiment because of Australia’s dependence on China and the global commodities trade
The Australian Dollar, which is highly sensitive to risk sentiment because of Australia’s dependence on China and the global commodities trade, inched higher on Friday due to the light bank holiday volume, highlighting easing stress in global markets.
U.S. equity markets were closed on Friday, but perhaps helping to underpin the Aussie may have been a U.S. report showing consumer prices fell by the most in more than five years in March.
The Labor Department said on Friday its consumer price index dropped 0.4% last month amid a tumble in the cost of gasoline, and record decreases in hotel accommodations, apparel and airline ticket prices. Traders were looking for a 0.3% decline in the CPI in March.
Looking ahead on Monday, some traders are saying an agreement by oil producing nations to cut output by a record amount may sustain a recent bounce in stocks. If it does underpin global equities or helps to sustain the rally then look for the Australian Dollar to extend its gains.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.61.
The projected closing price is: 0.63.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 93.0872. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.633. Volume was 59% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 76% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.634 0.636 0.632 0.633 29,156
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.62 0.64 0.67
Volatility: 19 22 13
Volume: 112,833 90,327 64,952
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.