Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) going to be highly influenced by the US/China trade situation

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) going to be highly influenced by the US/China trade situation

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) going to be highly influenced by the US/China trade situation

The Australian dollar has taken off to the upside during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA by the time New York opened. With that being the case, it looks as if we are trying to make a “higher level”, something that I had warned could happen. I believe you have plenty of time to get involved in this pair though, because quite frankly even if we have already seen the bottom, that means that we have a long way to go to the top.

Unfortunately, the Australian dollar is going to be highly influenced by the US/China trade situation, so as long as that’s up in the air, there is going to be a bit of an acre around the neck of the Aussie itself. Having said that, if we can get a daily close above the 200 day EMA which is currently about 110 pips above pricing, then a lot of longer-term money will start to jump been as well. The RBA looks to be loose with its monetary policy, so this certainly has all to do with China and nothing to do with Australia.

The 0.67 level has been supportive enough to form a bit of a “double bottom” and looks to be crucial on longer-term charts as well. It is because of this that I am entertaining the idea of taking a longer term position to the upside here, but obviously you can pick and choose your entry point, perhaps building a larger “core position” over time.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.9794. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 83 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 115.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.682. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.682 0.682 0.682 0.682 35
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 39,097 51,066 74,429

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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