Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) gains are likely to be limited over the near-term

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) gains are likely to be limited over the near-term

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) gains are likely to be limited over the near-term

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Monday. There has been to follow-through to the upside following Friday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. Friday’s volatile price action was fueled by short-covering related to the mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. We could still see a follow-through rally later today, but gains are likely to be limited over the near-term because of traders betting on at least one interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia later this year.

At 03:00 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7032, down 0.0013 or -0.21%.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7030 will indicate the presence of aggressive counter-trend buyers. Taking out .7053 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main 50% level at .7079, followed closely by a downtrending Gann angle at .7087.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7030 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into Friday’s low at .7003. Taking out this level will negate the closing price reversal bottom with the next target angle coming in at .6999.

The uptrending Gann angle at .6999 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the short-term Fibonacci level at .6967 the next major target.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.2314. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 55 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.705. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.703 0.705 0.702 0.705 44,270

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 7 11 11
Volume: 97,949 103,682 108,084

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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