Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) gains are being capped by a stronger U.S. Dollar
Increased demand for risky commodity currencies is helping to boost the Australian Dollar on Monday, however, gains are being capped by a stronger U.S. Dollar. Position-squaring ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary meeting could also be providing some support.
After opening flat, the Aussie rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday expressed hope that the United States was seeing a ‘leveling-off” of the virus crisis in some of the nation’s hot spots. The commodity-linked currency was also supported by a rebound in crude oil prices.
Oil prices dropped about 9% during the early session on Monday but began an impressive intraday turnaround after Kirill Dmitriev of the Russian Direct Investment Fund told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday that Russia and Saudi Arabia are “very close” to a deal.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6050, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .5990. This angle provided support earlier in the session.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over .5990 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a 50% level at .6098. Overcoming this angle will indicate the buying is getting stronger with potential targets coming in at .6213 and .6236.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under .5990 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at .5862.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 0.63.
The projected lower bound is: 0.59.
The projected closing price is: 0.61.
Candlesticks
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.7048. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.611. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 80% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.609 0.612 0.607 0.611 22,380
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.61 0.64 0.67
Volatility: 19 21 12
Volume: 121,481 86,238 64,205
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX AUD= is currently 9.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 60 periods.
