Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Focus on Economic Data
For the Aussie Dollar, economic data is on the heavier side, with key stats including July retail sales and 2nd quarter company profit figures on Monday, 2nd quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday, July trade figures on Thursday and home loan figures on Friday.
While GDP, trade and retail sales figures will impact, the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday will have an influence, as will manufacturing PMI numbers out of China on Monday and trade war chatter. The AUD/USD ended the week down 1.91% to $0.7189.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.4705. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 82 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -146.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.007 at 0.719. Volume was 17% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.726 0.727 0.717 0.719 120,337
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 14 11 10
Volume: 107,792 104,416 96,863
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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