Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) flat for the week

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) flat for the week

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) flat for the week

We had expected the level at 0.7207 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows the how the price returned to hit and reject the level during the Asian session last Wednesday.

This is often a very good “local” time of day to enter trades in currency pairs of Asian time-zone currencies such as the AUD/USD currency pair. The price immediately printed a bullish pin candlestick which broke upwards right away, which often signifies a good reversal is taking place. This trade was very nicely profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of more than 6 to 1 so far.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.

The projected upper bound is: 0.74.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.73.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.1818. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 73 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.732. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.730 0.732 0.730 0.732 1,491

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 10 10 10
Volume: 98,221 101,193 94,904

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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