Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) finding itself under pressure
The Australian Dollar is finding itself under pressure against the US Dollar as it attempts to push through the March 2009 low again. This is ahead of the October Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate announcement, which could produce monetary-policy-based volatility in the currency as markets widely anticipate a cut. Will support hold?
On the daily chart, AUD/USD has been in a near-term downtrend since the latter half of September. This has left behind what could be potential descending resistance from July – red dashed line below. In the event of a turn higher ahead, overcoming its descent would likely entail clearing this trend line. That would then expose September highs which are a range between 0.6865 and 0.6895.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.66.
The projected closing price is: 0.67.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.6835. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -137.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.670. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.670 0.670 0.670 0.670 1,337
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 7 7 9
Volume: 57,906 68,332 86,564
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.