Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) falling back into key support level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) falling back into key support level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) falling back into key support level

AUD/USD has been in consolidation mode over the past fortnight, with the pair exhibiting lower highs and largely flatlining lows during that time.

We are seeing a return to that $0.6962 support level this morning, with the reaction to that level likely to prove key to the outlook for the pair. Watch for a break and close below that level to provide a signal that the bearish trend is set to kick in once more. On the flip side, continued respect of that support zone would point towards a rise back into trendline resistance.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.3513. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 100 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -103.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.698. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.699 0.700 0.697 0.698 42,684

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 5 7 10
Volume: 88,066 93,962 106,461

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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