Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) fallen against the greenback for the sixth straight session

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) fallen against the greenback for the sixth straight session

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) fallen against the greenback for the sixth straight session

We turned bearish AUD on Monday (13 Aug, spot at 0.7285) with an immediate ‘target’ of 0.7220 and were of the view that the “odds for further extension to 0.7160 are relatively high”.

There is no change to our view as AUD dropped to an overnight low of 0.7224 and a break of 0.7220 would open up the way for a move to 0.7160. To put it another way, there is no indication that the current bearish phase is ending soon and only a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 0.7330 (level previously at 0.7380) would suggest that a short-term low is in place.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.5863. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 71 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -118.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.724. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.724 0.724 0.723 0.724 3,875

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 9 10 9
Volume: 91,007 99,909 94,442

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 5.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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