Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) extends the rebound

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) extends the rebound

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) extends the rebound

AUD/USD extends the rebound from late last week as the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, appear to be on track to reach a trade deal, but the exchange rate may face range-bound conditions ahead of the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on March 5 as the central bank shows a greater willingness to further support the economy.

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside as the flash-crashrebound stalls at the 200-Day SMA (0.7265), with both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failing to preserve the bullish formations from earlier this year.
  • However, the failed attempt to test the 0.7020 (50% expansion) hurdle brings the monthly-range in focus, with a break/close above the 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) region raising the risk for a move back towards 0.7230 (61.8% expansion).
  • A break/close above 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) brings the 200-Day SMA (0.7265) back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement).

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.6306. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 130.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.717. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.717 0.717 0.716 0.717 1,665

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.73
Volatility: 8 11 11
Volume: 98,763 103,293 108,188

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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