Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Explodes Overnight
USD Down on Manufacturing Miss
The US dollar has been under pressure over early trading on Tuesday as the reaction from yesterday’s data miss continues. The US ISM Manufacturing print for November came in below expectations at 48.1 vs 49.2 expected. Marking the fourth straight month in contractionary territory, the reading is a poor omen for the health of the US economy over the final quarter of the year. USD index trades 97.80.
Lagarde Say ECB Will Pusruse Inflation Target
EURUSD has taken advantage of the fall in USD to trade higher again today, extending yesterday’s gains. Speaking before European Parliament yesterday, new ECB chief Lagarde said that the ECB will be “resolute” in pursuing its goal of 2% inflation and noted that the bank’s accommodative monetary policy stance will remain in place. Lagarde heads her first policy meeting this month on the 12th. EURUSD trades 1.1080 last, back above the 1.1024 level once again.
GBP Rallies on USD Weakness
GBPUSD surged higher gain today, benefiting from USD weakness. Uncertainty ahead of the elections continues to obscure price action. The latest polls show Johnson’s lead having fallen lower into single digits. While the prospect of a surprise Labour win could increase the chances of Brexit being canceled, the outlook for the UK economy is worse as a result of Corbyn’s proposed economic policies. GBPUSD trades 1.2973 last, challenging the recent highs.
Equities Suffer Heavy Losses
Risk assets have stabilized a little so far, however, the tone remains weak on the back of the heavy sell-off seen yesterday. Another bout of US data weakness, along with news that China canceled a US military visit over the US backing of the Hong Kong protesters, has soured the mood on Tuesday. The market is now concerned about the likelihood of a deal being done given the dispute over Hong Kong. SPX500 trades 3119.73 last.
JPY & Gold Rally
Safe havens have started the day on a strong footing in light of the sell-off in equities over the last 24 hours. Both the Japanese yen and gold have been higher against USD, which came under pressure in response to manufacturing data weakness. USDJPY trades 109.03 last, turning back down towards the 108.84 level. XAUUSD trades 1464.32, still well below the 1500 level despite the recovery so far.
Crude Clings On
Crude prices have bounced over early European trading today. Despite the move lower in risk assets and raising fears over the US/China trade talks, crude prices have been supported by the move lower in USD. Later today, the API will release its inventories report for a first look at US crude levels over the last week, ahead of tomorrow’s headline EIA report. Crude trades 56.30 last.
USDCAD has been lower again today though, at 1.3294, is fighting hard to recoup yesterday’s losses. The BOC meets tomorrow and while a rate cut is not the base case scenario, following the bank’s warning at the last meeting, there is plenty of downside risk for CAD. If the BOC doesn’t cut rates, its outlook is likely to be more dovish than last time.
RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
AUDUSD is higher again today, benefiting from the weakness in USD. The RBA kept rates on hold during its final meeting of the year, keeping AUD supported in the near term. While concerns around the health of US/China trade talks are hindering risk appetite, for now, AUD seems to immune to this with traders happy to bid the Aussie up. AUDUSD trades .6859 last.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.1620. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 171.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.685. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.685 0.685 0.684 0.685 1,068
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 39,221 50,690 74,152
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.
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