Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) expected to show a more modest increase in jobs in November

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) expected to show a more modest increase in jobs in November

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) expected to show a more modest increase in jobs in November

Australia publishes its jobs report for November on Thursday, 00:30 GMT. The Land Down Under enjoyed a robust rate of jobs growth in October: no less then 32.8K positions were added to the economy, exceeding what had been expected and lifting the Australian Dollar.

Other figures shined as well. The Unemployment Rate dropped to the round level of 5%, and most importantly, the composition of full-time and part-time jobs was favorable. The economy gained 42.3K full-time positions and lost 9.5K part-time ones.

An OK report may not be good enough

Expectations for November are slightly more modest: an increase of 20K positions and a repeat of the 5% jobless rate. In theory, lower expectations make beating expectations easier, thus leaving more room for an upside surprise.

This may not be the case this time. An increase of 20K jobs is not too most, just lower than last time. In the recent past, gains of around 10K were seen more than once. Moreover, after job gains were heavily tilted towards full-time jobs, the pendulum could swing back to part-time ones.

So, in case the Australian economy gains around 20K jobs but the lion’s share of these positions is part-time ones, the A$ could slide in the aftermath.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.4897. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 159 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.717. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 12% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.718 0.720 0.717 0.717 99,934

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.72 0.74
Volatility: 7 10 10
Volume: 119,169 120,782 106,953

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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