Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) expected to move higher to 0.7410
We have held the same view since last Thursday (29 Nov, spot at 0.7305) wherein the “the prospect of 0.7199 as a short-term bottom is quite high). We added, “confirmation of a short-term bottom is only upon a clear break above 0.7335/40”. AUD blast past this level early this morning as US/China trade war truce sent it rocketing (AUD gapped higher as it opened at 0.7370).
As highlighted last week, a break of 0.7335/40 would indicate that AUD is “ready to tackle, 0.7380, 0.7410 in the coming weeks”. In other words, the current price action is in line with our expectation and from here, we are expecting AUD to move to 0.7410. The next resistance above this level is at 0.7455. On the downside, the ‘key support’ has moved higher to 0.7280 from 0.7240. On a short-term note, 0.7330 is already a strong support level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.72.
The projected closing price is: 0.74.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.5275. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 148 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 173.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.004 at 0.735. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.737 0.739 0.734 0.735 100,313
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.72 0.74
Volatility: 11 11 10
Volume: 118,990 118,857 106,109
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
FOREX AUD= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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