Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) down to new 2018 lows

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) down to new 2018 lows

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) down to new 2018 lows

  1. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This gauge of Australian employment precedes the official jobs report released by the government. The number of job advertisements dropped by 0.6% in August and we may see a bounce in September.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The National Australia Bank’s monthly survey of 350 businesses fell to 4 points in September and the trend is generally to the downside. Another drop cannot be ruled out.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. This bank survey focuses on consumers. The 1,200-strong survey fell sharply in the past two months. After a slide of 3% in September, we could see a bounce back in October, as spring begins in Australia.
  4. Luci Ellis talks Wednesday, 22:30. The RBA Assistant Governor will talk in Melbourne and may provide hints on monetary policy. The event is titled “Delivering Growth with Equity.”
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Expectations measure showed expectations for an annual increase of 4% in August, above the current level of price increases. MI’s measure complements official inflation data which is released only once per quarter. We will now get the data for September.
  6. RBA Financial Stability Review: Friday, 1:30. The central bank publishes a report on financial stability twice per year. Apart from the assessment on stability, the publication also provides economic figures and may hint about monetary policy.
  7. Home Loans: Friday, 00:30. New loans increased by 0.4% in July after a substantial drop of 1.1% in June. While this is a volatile economic indicator, the data provides a snapshot of the housing sector. A drop of 0.9% is projected.
  8. Chinese trade balance: Friday, 2:00. Australia’s No. 1 trading partner is showing signs of a slowdown but still enjoys a high trade surplus that stood at 27.9 billion in August. Apart from the bottom line number, the level of imports matters to Australia that supplies China with metals for construction and industry. China’s trade surprlus is expected to stand at 24.6 billion USD.

0.7480 capped the pair in mid-July and defends the round 0.75 level. 0.7420 capped the pair twice in mid-July. 0.7360 was a low point in mid-July.

0.7310 is the low of July 2018. 0.7240 was a swing low in late August and the pair attempted to reach it in mid-September.

The round number of 0.7200 was a temporary low. 0.7150 was a stepping stone on the way down in early September. 0.7060 was a stepping stone on the way down in early October and is close to a level seen in January 2017.

The round number of 0.70 is closely watched by many market participants. Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017. Below, the only noteworthy level is only 0.6825 that supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.2609. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 108 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -145.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.705. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.705 0.706 0.704 0.705 5,262

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 8 11 10
Volume: 102,932 102,746 100,886

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 6.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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