Home FX AUD Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) door open for bullish short-term trend scenarios

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) door open for bullish short-term trend scenarios

6

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) door open for bullish short-term trend scenarios

I had charted this setup around last week’s open, largely looking for AUDUSD to grasp on to support after gapping-higher to start the week. A dovish RBA rate decision shortly after helped to push prices back down to support, quickly filling that gap; but buyers held the line and prices respected the prior low.

Now price action in the pair is putting in shorter-term higher-highs and higher-lows, keeping the door open for bullish short-term trend scenarios and longer-term reversal backdrops.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.70.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.6316. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.692. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.692 0.693 0.692 0.692 1,267

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 6 8 10
Volume: 77,888 91,083 105,072

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

Previous articleSingapore: STI Index (.STI) fell 0.2%, with financials dragging the index
Next articleAxiata Group Berhad (6888:KL) denies selling Malaysian interests to Telenor in merger move
HEFFX has become one of Asia’s leading financial services companies with interests in Publishing, Private Equity, Capital Markets, Mining, Retail, Transport and Agriculture that span every continent of the world. Our clearing partners have unprecedented experience in Equities, Options, Forex and Commodities brokering, banking, physical metals dealing, floor brokering and trading.