Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) dips as RBA strikes again
The RBA lowered interest rates for a second straight month, the first back-to-back cuts since 2012. The benchmark rate currently stands at an even 1.0%, a historical low. In follow-up comments, RBA Governor Lowe said that the economic outlook “remains reasonable”, but investors will no doubt be concerned at the hyper-activity of the RBA.
Elsewhere, Building approvals rebounded after two consecutive declines, posting a gain of 0.1%. Retail sales improved to 0.1%, but this fell short of the forecast of 0.2%.In the U.S., the services sector PMI continues to indicate expansion, but slowed in May.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, slowing to 55.1, down from 56.9 a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 56.1. Key employment numbers were a mix in June.
Wage growth remained stuck at 0.2% for a third successive month. Nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a strong gain of 224 thousand, crushing the estimate of 162 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, above the estimate of 3.6%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.7324. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.00. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.697. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.698 0.698 0.697 0.697 970
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 8 7 9
Volume: 70,126 85,161 102,365
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.
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