Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Slide

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Slide

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Slide

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but found enough trouble at the 0.69 level to turn things back around and show extreme weakness. That is also where the 200 day EMA is, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that the market will continue to pay attention to it. There are a multitude of reasons why the Australian dollar may or may not move, but one of the biggest drivers will be the Chinese economy and of course whether or not they are going to continue export market.

The Australian dollar continues to suffer at the hands of the wildfires, and of course the idea of the possibility of a rate cut coming out of the RBA. Ultimately though, this is a market that has been trying to find a bit of a bottom so the next couple of days will be crucial. If we can turn around a recapture the 200 day EMA, that would be a very bullish sign. However, if we break down below the 0.68 level, that will kill the idea of this potential trend change and could send the Australian dollar into a bit of a tailspin as we had recently seen such a bullish move, only to see it broken right back down. More likely than not, you are probably better off leaving this pair alone until it make some type of clear move. Simply waiting to see the market make one of these moves is probably the best way going forward.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 12.1339. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -107.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.003 at 0.684. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.687 0.688 0.684 0.684 51,638
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.69 0.69
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 53,196 45,445 65,547

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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