Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Hover

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Hover

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Continues To Hover

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to hang around the 50 day EMA. We are sitting just above the previous downtrend line though, so it’s very likely that the buyers will come in and try to pick this market up. If we can break above the 200 day EMA which is pictured in black on the chart, it’s likely that the market will continue to go much higher. Ultimately, this is a market that is highly sensitive to the US/China trade situation and of course risk appetite as well. The jobs number in the United States has a major influence on risk appetite globally.

All things being equal though, it does look like we are trying to find a bit of a trend change, but there are a lot of moving pieces at this point, so don’t be surprised at all if it’s very noisy. Having said that, if we were to break above the 200 day EMA it’s likely that we will then go looking towards the recent highs near the 0.7030 level. We are getting relatively close to the “golden cross”, when the 50 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA, a longer-term buy-and-hold signal. This is very bullish for longer-term traders and should attract fresh flows into the marketplace. Ultimately, if we were to make a move below the 0.68 level though, that could change everything in make this a suddenly negative looking market. This market looks as if it is trying to do a bit of a trend change, which is always a very messy affair.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.69.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.0323. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.48. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -129.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.686. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.687 0.688 0.685 0.686 50,414
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.69 0.69
Volatility: 8 7 8
Volume: 47,179 45,672 66,987

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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