Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) continues to consolidate

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) continues to consolidate

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) continues to consolidate

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth over the last several sessions, and of course the 0.68 level has offered a lot of resistance. We continue to pull back from that area on short-term charts, but I think at this point it’s obvious that the 0.67 level should offer a lot of support. Given enough time, I do think that we roll over and we are starting to go to the bottom of the hammer.

All things being equal, keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the US/China trade relations. That continues to be a major problem, and of course we have to worry about the global trade situation overall, and of course global growth. The US dollar continues to strengthen overall as traders continue to favor US Treasuries as a place to hide, so it makes quite a bit of sense that this pair continues to drop. Beyond that, the RBA is essentially stuck, as it is held hostage by the US/China trade war, with Australia being a major supplier of raw materials to the Chinese economy.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.69.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.7955. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.678. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.676 0.679 0.675 0.678 57,721
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.71
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 78,343 70,203 94,346

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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