Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) confined to its narrow trading range

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) confined to its narrow trading range

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) confined to its narrow trading range

Yesterday, the AUD / USD pair was almost unmoved after the release of the FOMC statement. The Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged at 2.00% as anticipated.

The Fed also did not make any substantial changes to its statement, leaving the AUD/USD confined to its narrow trading range since June 19.

The price is currently trading sideways between the July 2 low of 0.7311 and July 9 high of 0.7483. It seems like the price is trying to prolong its consolidation and waiting for a trigger point to get a direction, which could be the RBA interest rate decision next week.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.0148. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -161.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.736. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.736 0.737 0.736 0.736 4,337

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.74 0.77
Volatility: 10 10 9
Volume: 92,509 100,980 93,044

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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