Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) can’t find a way out of the darkness

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) can’t find a way out of the darkness

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) can’t find a way out of the darkness

The Australian dollar can’t find a way out of the darkness. The AUD has been falling since January 2019 and it seems that the situation only worsens. Let’s see what factors will affect the currency in the middle term.

On the daily chart of AUD/USD, the pair has been moving towards the lows of January 2016 at 0.6832. The level is crucial for the aussie. If the pair slumps below it, the next support will lie only at 0.6287 – lows of the first quarter of 2009.

The recovery of the pair will be likely if only the pair is able to stick above 0.6952.  Until then, any rise below this level will be considered as only a consolidation.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.70.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.1139. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.689. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.688 0.690 0.686 0.689 78,302

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.71 0.71
Volatility: 7 8 10
Volume: 90,655 93,452 105,903

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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