Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) busy week includes inflation and retail sales
The Australian dollar suffered from the global sell-off in stocks and the accompanying risk-off sentiment. What’s next? A busy week includes inflation and retail sales among other figures. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
RBA officials did not rock the boat in the past week and left AUD/USD to rock by the moves in global markets. The attempts of the Chinese authorities to calm markets by announcing stimulus provided only a short-term relief. Stocks dropped all over the world and the Aussie, a risk currency dropped. US figures were mixed and the fall is more related to tariffs and the Fed’s policy than anything concrete.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.4334. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 123 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.710. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.709 0.710 0.708 0.710 4,481
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 6 10 10
Volume: 107,639 106,689 104,119
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.