Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Business Confidence Falls

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Business Confidence Falls

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Business Confidence Falls

Business confidence in Australia fell to a two-year low, according to the NAB Business Confidence Index released this morning. The index reached 4 in August, considerably lower than last month’s reading of 7 and hit one of the lowest values since October 2016.

Nevertheless, NAB’s index that measures business conditions – a separate index – rose by 2 points to hit 15 index points in August. According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, business conditions in Australia were improving on the back of improving profitability and trading conditions, with the index remaining well above average. A value above 0 indicates improving business conditions, while a value below 0 signals worsening conditions.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.0198. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 90 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.712. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 54% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.712 0.712 0.711 0.712 1,557

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 10 11 10
Volume: 89,964 101,511 96,941

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 6.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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