Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) breaking through some relatively difficult resistance

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) breaking through some relatively difficult resistance

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) breaking through some relatively difficult resistance

The Australian dollar has rallied again during the day on Wednesday, breaking through some relatively difficult resistance at the 0.7250 line. Perhaps it is the idea that the Chinese are starting to soften their stance a bit, or maybe it’s just a simple reflexive bounce after a major selloff, but it looks as if we will probably go towards the 0.7350 level where I anticipate seeing a lot of resistance.

Regardless of this nice bounce that we have seen, we are still very much in a downtrend and that hasn’t changed. I see a lot of noise above at the 0.7350 level, so quite frankly I think the easiest play is the wait for the market to get to that area and start selling. This is because it’s going take a lot of momentum to break through the noise just above.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.74.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.73.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.9276. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 97 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 172.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.729. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 25% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 3,157

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 7 11 10
Volume: 86,914 100,903 97,708

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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