Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) big miss in building approvals

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) big miss in building approvals

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) big miss in building approvals

For those that don’t follow the Australian economy closely, we’ve seen a big housing boom. That is now well and truly over and there are many calling for a crash.

Real estate is a big part of the Australian economy and wealth in general. Tighter lending standards are really hurting home prices and the follow through is on building and construction also.

Today we saw a big miss in building approvals at -9.4% MoM. A really bad result.

On the news, the AUD/USD is down 0.3%. Don’t underestimate the impact this might have going forward.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.1370. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 35.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 106 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -182.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.711. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.710 0.711 0.710 0.711 1,730

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 8 11 10
Volume: 100,667 101,519 99,986

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 6.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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