Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Benefits from Trade Hopes and Central Bank Speculation

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Benefits from Trade Hopes and Central Bank Speculation

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Benefits from Trade Hopes and Central Bank Speculation

Despite slightly dampened Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets, the Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate has continued to advance this week so far. The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rebound from its recent lows due to numerous factors.

Since hitting a post-January interbank low of 0.68 last week, AUD/USD has seen a solid rebound.

A lack of particularly supportive Australian news in recent sessions hasn’t stopped the pair from advancing past the interbank level of 0.89, and at the time of writing on Wednesday AUD/USD was trending near its best levels in a fortnight.

The Australian Dollar has been benefitting from a combination of hopes for positive developments in global trade tensions, while the US Dollar (USD) remains unappealing overall on persisting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rates Higher on Trade Speculation and Rival Movement

A lack of supportive Australian news in the last week has not prevented the Australian Dollar (AUD) from advancing versus a weaker US Dollar (USD), as the antipodean ‘Aussie’ benefits from other global factors.

The 2019 G20 Summit in Osaka will begin at the end of the week, and US President Donald Trump is expected to hold a meeting with China President Xi Jinping regarding the ongoing trade tensions between the nations.

Hopes for some kind of optimistic development in US-China trade tensions is keeping the Australian Dollar supported, and the currency has also been more appealing due to movements in rival currencies.

As the US Dollar’s (USD) appeal remains limited on Fed interest rate cut bets, the ‘Aussie’ has been more appealing in comparison.

On top of this, a less dovish than expected tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) last night caused a surge in New Zealand Dollar (NZD) demand, which also bolstered Australian Dollar demand due to the correlation the currencies share.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.5416. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.698. Volume was 43% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.696 0.699 0.695 0.698 53,500

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 7 7 9
Volume: 80,372 88,465 104,016

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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