Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) as moved into a consolidation phase
We highlighted yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 0.7310) that the odds for further AUD weakness have diminished and the subsequent break of the 0.7330 ‘stop-loss’ was not exactly unexpected.
The outlook for AUD has shifted to neutral now and we view the current price action as the early stages of a consolidation phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside and AUD is more likely to test the top of the expected 0.7270/0.7420 consolidation range first.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.72.
The projected closing price is: 0.73.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.5154. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 75 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.735. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.737 0.737 0.733 0.735 104,915
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 10 10 10
Volume: 109,990 103,606 95,547
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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