Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Analysts divided as some forecast stability

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Analysts divided as some forecast stability

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Analysts divided as some forecast stability

The Australian Dollar edged higher from August’s two-year lows Tuesday as investors rotated back into “risk assets” after President Trump criticised the Federal Reserve for its tightening of US monetary policy, which has been a source of pressure on other currencies this year.

Australian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: Will AUD/USD Rise Further on Construction Data?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could extend its current gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as a result of a Q2 construction output reading.

Quarter-on-quarter construction sector activity is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.7%; some optimistic economists anticipate an even larger rise up to 1.1%.

2018 opened with an -18.3% drop in construction sector activity during January, so any signs of continued growth could be enough to lift AUD.

Wednesday’s less predictable data release will be the evening’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 93.2281. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 74 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.736. Volume was 4% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.734 0.738 0.733 0.736 105,615

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 10 10 10
Volume: 108,617 103,387 95,443

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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