Australian Dollar: Economic and political fears continue to weigh down the Australian Dollar USD/AUD (AUD=X)

Australian Dollar: Economic and political fears continue to weigh down the Australian Dollar USD/AUD (AUD=X)

Australian Dollar: Economic and political fears continue to weigh down the Australian Dollar USD/AUD (AUD=X) 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to fall considerable amounts with very little relief in sight. Since the high of the calendar year of 0.81356 made on January 18th 2018, AUD/USD has dropped -1,036 pips, creating a staggering -12.74% loss against the US Dollar. The trend down from that date has been one of strength and power. Adding to these current calendar year bearish conditions is multiyear support levels that the AUDUSD pair has shattered. The 17-year long uptrend line has been broken, as well as horizontal support levels. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading below the February 2016 lows. The next level of support is at the 0.7050 zones.

The power and swiftness of the move down in the AUD/USD pair should be observed and compared to the most recent major bear move in the AUD/USD FX pair. From April of 2013 to January of 2016, the AUD/USD pair supper a nearly three yearlong bear trend that saw the AUD/USD FX pair drop -1450 pips over a 720-day trading period. The current bear trend has retraced over 71% of the 2013-2016 move in only 31% of the time.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.5185. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 88 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -134.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.710. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 36% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.711 0.709 0.710 2,860

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 10 11 10
Volume: 95,300 102,402 96,915

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 6.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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