U.S. dollar is on the defensive once more early Wednesday, particularly against other growth-leveraged currencies such as the Australian dollar, following an uptick in U.S. inflation.
The dollar is extending losses on Wednesday after the U.S. government reported the previous session that consumer inflation rebounded 0.6% month-on-month, the most in nearly eight years, in June, easing worries concerning deflationary pressures from the economic downturn.
Helping to limit gains was a report from Westpac that showed a drop in consumer sentiment that reversed all of last month’s spectacular gain, taking the index back to the weak levels seen in might but still leaving it 16% above April’s extreme low of 75.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the minor top at .7001. A trade through .6833 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend also reversed to the upside following a one-day setback. The minor trend can change to down on a trade through .6921. this will also shift momentum to the downside.
The short-term range is .7065 to .6777. Its 50% level at .6921 is support. This level stopped the selling on Tuesday.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
We’d prefer to see the AUD/USD sustain a rally over .7001. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the main tops at .7065 and .7082 over the near-term.
Falling back beneath .7001 will be the first sign of weakness, while a close under .6975 will form a potentially bearish price reversal top. taking out the price cluster at .6921, formed by the 50% level and minor bottom at .6921 will shift momentum to the downside.
AUD/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
AUD/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.71.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.1385. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 113.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.699. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 66% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 0.701 0.701 0.698 0.699 33,617
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 0.70 0.68 0.67 Volatility: 7 13 15 Volume: 78,175 94,318 74,800
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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