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The Australian dollar rose on Monday after data showed China extended its economic recovery, and the New Zealand currency also posted gains following a landslide election victory for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during the weekend.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3, which correlates closely with the Chinese economy, rose 0.2% to $0.7091 against the greenback, recovering a fraction of the previous week’s losses.
China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, extending its economic comeback, while monthly indicators pointed to a pickup in momentum too.
Australian government bond futures were slightly lower on Monday, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 down half a tick at 99.83, ahead of the release of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy minutes on Tuesday.
The 10-year contract YTCc1 was 2.5 ticks lower, at 99.25.
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Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX AUD=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.6050. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -128.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.710. Volume was 56% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 0.708 0.711 0.706 0.710 36,745
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 0.71 0.72 0.68 Volatility: 12 11 16 Volume: 70,385 76,659 86,044
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 4.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.