Australian Dollar News
The AUD offered little to excite investors through trade on Monday, maintaining a narrow range and bouncing between 0.7150 and 0.7205. With little headline data available to drive direction investors focus remained with broader risk flows choosing to chase positive sentiment and ignore negative developments. Victoria continues to see daily case numbers trend in the right direction while the rest of the country appears to be in control of outbreaks, containing wider community transmission for now. With lockdown restrictions seemingly stemming the spread of infection through Victoria there is hope community transmission will be back to zero before the end of the year, leaving the door open for a renewed economic rebound.
Positive sentiment continues to control direction, allowing the AUD to hold onto gains above 0.70 US cents. Having touched highs above 0.7250 the dollar appears range bound between 0.7130 and 0.7250 seeking that next catalyst to drive it higher. While the July rally has stalled there is ample scope for the AUD to trend higher into the end of the year with downward pressure on the USD still in play. We expect the worlds base currency will come under renewed selling pressure in the months ahead opening the door for a run toward 0.73 and 0.74. Of course, there are risks to this outlook as case numbers in Europe continue to rise. Alarmingly new infections in Germany, France and Italy have spiked in recent weeks. Should conditions worsen and targeted restrictions fail to contain the spread we may see a second lockdown period stymie the economic recovery.
AUD/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
AUD/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.1267. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.717. Volume was 80% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 0.716 0.718 0.715 0.717 17,929
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 0.72 0.71 0.67 Volatility: 8 9 15 Volume: 65,018 85,525 79,217
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 6.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.
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