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Australian Dollar: AUD/USD (AUD=X) Forming a Shooting Star

$AUD #Australian #Dollar #FX #Currency #Markets #Trading

The Australian dollar continues to show signs of hesitation at the 0.70 level, forming a bit of a shooting star. we are clearly at a point of inflection and this may be very frustrating for traders. All things being equal, I do think it is only a matter of time before we have to make a choice. At this point, if we were to break above the 0.71 level, i would assume that the trend has changed, and we would look towards the 0.80 level over the longer term. Alternately, if we were to turn around a break down below the 0.68 level, then we may drop considerably from there. At this point in time, i believe it is only a matter of time before we make some type of bigger decision.

The Australian dollar of course is sensitive to global growth and demand, and as you can see, we have made a massive “V-shaped recovery” in this currency pair. By doing so, things look a bit suspicious and if we were to continue to go higher, then we probably need to kill some time in this overall range to stabilize things. Otherwise, a break down below the 0.68 level might end up being a nice selling opportunity. At this point in time, I think it is only a matter of time before we make a decision, but we may have several weekly candlesticks to go through before that happens. We are currently between the 50 week EMA and the 200 week EMA, so that of course will have a major influence on what things are going to occur.

AUD/US Dollar Exchange Rate

Today’s Forex Rates

AUD/US Dollar FX Polls

Economic Events

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.4520. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.06. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 101.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.700. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 69% narrower than normal.

Open     High     Low      Close      Volume
0.697    0.701    0.696    0.700      88,249
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period      50-period      200-period
Close:           0.70           0.68           0.67
Volatility:      8              13             15
Volume:          86,888         95,789         75,307

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.

Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AUD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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