Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($)(AUDUSD) Weak Against US Counterpart

Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($)(AUDUSD) Weak Against US Counterpart

Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($)(AUDUSD) Weak Against US Counterpart

Australian dollar is sharply lower against its US counterpart as the oil price plunges five per cent and the US dollar rebounds.

At 0635 AEST on Friday, the Australian dollar was worth 74.53 US cents, down from 74.91 US cents on Thursday.

Westpac’s Imre Speizer said Brent crude prices fell five per cent with markets underwhelmed by OPEC’s production cuts.

And, while the US dollar rebounded in the London session and interest rates were stable, the Aussie dollar had fallen.

“AUD fell from its afternoon peak of 0.7516 to 0.7451,” he said in a morning note on Friday.

He said he could not see the Aussie heading very high and doubted there would be any fresh breach above 76 US cents for some time.

“The 75.15 (US cent) area is a minor barrier to further upside for now. The modestly weaker-than-expected Australian CPI outcome has added yet another factor capping the Australian dollar: softer commodity prices; a more protectionist stance from US president Trump, and higher US yields if the Fed raises rates in June as we expect. These leave the $A with strong resistance at 0.76.”

The local currency is also lower against the yen and the euro.

One Australian dollar buys:

* 74.53 US cents, from 74.91 on Thursday

* 83.38 Japanese yen, from 83.70 yen

* 66.51 euro cents, from 66.71 euro cents

 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.6809. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 79 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.745. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open    High    Low      Close    Volume
0.745    0.746   0.742   0.745   90,846

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:                Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period     200-period
Close:                       0.74              0.75              0.75
Volatility:                6                    8                   10
Volume:                  88,312          82,968         101,412

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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John Heffernan

John Heffernan is a Junior Analyst at HEFFX. John is studying Economics and is a contributor on equities at Live Trading News.

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