Australia: USD/AUD (AUD=X) heavily sold-off amid ongoing Australian political turmoil

Australia: USD/AUD (AUD=X) heavily sold-off amid ongoing Australian political turmoil

Australia: USD/AUD (AUD=X) heavily sold-off amid ongoing Australian political turmoil

The Australian Dollar was the worst performing G10 currency Thursday as Asian markets went into “risk off” mode ahead of US-China trade talks in Washington and as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to either resign or allow another confidence ballot.

“The start of the Chinese/US trade talks has given Asian currencies a risk-off feel overnight and the dollar is recovering from a week’s falls,” says Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale.

Turnbull survived a confidence ballot warlier this week after calling one himself, although only by a narrow margin of 48-35. The ballot comes ahead of a general election that is expected to be held no later than May 2019, which has seen infighting grip the coalition amid a poor polling performance and following a series of scandals.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.

The projected upper bound is: 0.74.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.0618. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.05. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 76 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.010 at 0.724. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.735 0.735 0.724 0.724 104,301

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 12 11 10
Volume: 110,842 103,593 95,702

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 5.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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