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Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) traders prepare for what promises to be a high impact two-to-three weeks


Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) traders prepare for what promises to be a high impact two-to-three weeks

A quiet end to last week as the Thanksgiving holiday disrupted markets, setting up the ASX for a soft start this morning. At 7.15am AEDT, futures are pointing to a gain of 5 points at the open.

Stocks fall Friday on a day of low activity

It was a sea of red across the stock market map on Friday, but the losses were fairly shallow. At that, they were sustained on a day of very low activity, with the benchmark S&P500, for one, dropping -0.4 per cent, but on volumes 53 per cent the 30-day average.

That move backed up a day in which the ASX200 also pulled back, after touching record highs mid-week last week, lead lower by declines in both the banks and miners. It ought to be another quiet, albeit marginally positive open for the ASX200 this morning, with SPI Futures indicating a 5-point jump for the index.

A high impact fortnight ahead

As markets enter the final calendar month of 2019, traders prepare for what promises to be a high impact two-to-three weeks. Event risk is high, and will determine the strength of the current upswing in risk assets. The data docket is dense, and tremendous focus will be on interest rate decisions next week from the ECB and US Fed.

Geopolitical risk will, again, be the highest priority of all, with the UK General Election and the next round of tariff-hikes scheduled for the middle of the month. It could be a big end to an interesting year, with all the big issues coming to the fore.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,660.90.

The projected upper bound is: 6,988.11.

The projected lower bound is: 6,708.50.

The projected closing price is: 6,848.30.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.2721. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 104 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -18.000 at 6,846.000. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
6,864.0006,893.7006,846.0006,846.000 543,498,432
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 6,776.56 6,697.17 6,510.36
Volatility: 14 13 13
Volume: 615,748,736 585,287,936 637,811,776

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 5.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .AXJO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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