Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) took a strong lead from better-than-expected US retail sales figures

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) took a strong lead from better-than-expected US retail sales figures

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) took a strong lead from better-than-expected US retail sales figures

Australian shares closed lower on Tuesday, despite soaring 0.7 per cent at the open, as the major banks dragged the market lower.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 5.4 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 6174.8 while the broader All Ordinaries slid 2.7 points to 6260.6.

The local market took a strong lead from better-than-expected US retail sales figures which pushed shares on Wall Street higher.

“The equity market focused on that rebound and therefore that was conducive to the risk-on environment we’ve seen,” said NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril. “It’s indicative of how jittery the market is, we’ve seen it go down and then go back up.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,015.76.

The projected upper bound is: 6,291.18.

The projected lower bound is: 6,079.24.

The projected closing price is: 6,185.21.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with S&P/ASX 200) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.4038. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -5.400 at 6,174.800. Volume was 0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,180.2006,222.9006,174.8006,174.800 622,272,448

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,199.70 5,970.88 6,016.63
Volatility: 9 11 14
Volume: 692,595,648 603,903,040 604,716,288

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 2.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 45 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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