Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) to slide on final trading day of year

Australian shares are poised to open lower in the final trading day of the year.

ASX futures were down 61 points or 0.9% to 6680 near 7am AEDT. The local currency edged 0.3% higher to top US70¢.

Through Monday’s close, the S&P/ASX 200 is up 20.5% this year. The index has traded in a 1340 point range the past 52 weeks. After surging through the end of July, the benchmark has traded in a narrower range.

Today’s agenda

Local: Private sector credit November

Overseas data:  China manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs December; US FHFA house prices October, S&P CoreLogic CS house price October, CB consumer confidence December

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,704.71.

The projected upper bound is: 6,947.33.

The projected lower bound is: 6,667.28.

The projected closing price is: 6,807.30.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.2462. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 123 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -16.800 at 6,804.900. Volume was 52% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___

6,821.7006,824.7006,764.6006,804.900 294,800,864

Technical Outlook 

Short Term:          Neutral

Intermediate Term:   Bullish

Long Term:           Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period

Close:          6,814.34       6,744.29       6,566.74

Volatility:           11             13             13

Volume:      550,299,840    583,874,112    622,800,512

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 3.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

  #asx, #asx forecast, #asx index, #asx news, #asx price, #asx technical analysis, #asx technicals, #Australia, #australian stock market, #AXJO, #S&P/ASX 200, #shayne heffernan, #trading

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