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Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) shares are expected to fall

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) shares are expected to fall

Australian shares are expected to fall, reflecting in part more selling on Wall Street over the weekend, as the global number of coronavirus cases and the death toll leapt higher.

ASX futures were up 6 points or 0.1 per cent to 4834 at 3.59pm on Friday in New York. After the closing bell in New York on Friday local time, Dow futures fell 4.1 per cent and S&P 500 futures fell 3.2 per cent.

During Friday’s session, the Dow shed 915 points or 4.1 per cent to 21,367. The S&P 500 lost 3.4 per cent to 2541. The Nasdaq closed down 3.8 per cent.

“The main focus for investors is whether government adopts more stringent health measures, particularly in the most-affected states of New South Wales and Victoria,” NAB said in a note.

Also, additional fiscal measures are expected from the federal government.

“With the global economy slipping into recession and many economists estimating second-quarter gross domestic product growth in the United States will fall by 15 per cent or more, the world is being confronted with the worst downturn since the 1930s,” Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd wrote.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,066.39.

The projected upper bound is: 5,413.66.

The projected lower bound is: 4,398.72.

The projected closing price is: 4,906.19.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.6245. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 106.100 at 4,948.500. Volume was 56% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 227% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
4,842.4004,954.7004,833.1004,948.500 361,373,824
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 4,903.01 6,344.43 6,606.68
Volatility: 87 60 33
Volume: 1,480,187,008 1,033,493,312 720,182,656

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 25.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of .AXJO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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