Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) set to start the week on a positive note

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) set to start the week on a positive note

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) set to start the week on a positive note

ustralian shares are poised to start the week on a positive note as investors await the start of the US reporting season for a read on the outlook for corporate profits. ASX futures up 15 points. The Australian dollar edged 0.4 per cent higher to a one-month peak above US72¢.

The focus for local investors will be offshore this week, with a relatively quiet data schedule. Besides a second-tier inflation print today, there’s home loans on Thursday.

While there may be a dearth of local trading catalysts, the UK will provide some Brexit drama and there’s a raft of Federal Reserve policymakers on the speaking circuit as the US central bank continues to refine its policy message.

BlackRock portfolio manager Russ Koesterich said stocks are “cheap(ish)”.

“My logic is that the last 12 months are best characterised as a rolling bear market. In other words, investors have successively punished various segments, starting earlier in the year with emerging markets.

“Interestingly, it was the most beaten up segments, notably emerging markets and Europe that outperformed during December’s carnage. As such, select EM equities or perhaps European energy companies look particularly cheap and interesting. At the same time, some of the segments investors have been flocking to, notably defensives, still look a long way from cheap.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 5,935.90.

The projected lower bound is: 5,612.08.

The projected closing price is: 5,773.99.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.1977. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 50 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 124.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -20.700 at 5,774.600. Volume was 35% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,795.3005,808.6005,774.6005,774.600 398,455,520

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,686.51 5,703.94 6,002.23
Volatility: 16 18 14
Volume: 437,915,744 616,106,496 585,510,400

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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